RICS survey shows housing sales outlook at its weakest since July 2023 as rent expectations climb
Surveyors expect fewer sales and slightly lower prices over the next year, while their gauge of rents three months ahead is the strongest since early 2024.
Surveyors are gloomier about house sales over the coming year than at any point since July 2023, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors' (RICS) residential market survey for October, published on Thursday.
The survey's twelve-month sales expectations measure fell to a net balance of -17%. RICS said higher mortgage rates over recent months were holding back buyers, and that geopolitical and energy market developments had weighed on sentiment.
A net balance is the share of respondents reporting a rise minus the share reporting a fall, so a negative figure means more saw a decline.
Buyers and sales
- New buyer enquiries: -24%, the same as in September, with almost every part of the UK reporting falling or flat demand
- Agreed sales: -24%, down from -18% and the weakest reading for three months
- Sales expected over the next three months: -11%
- New properties coming up for sale: -8%, down from +6%
Market appraisals, the valuations agents carry out before a home is listed, came in at -34%. RICS said the pipeline of new listings may slow further over the next few months.
Prices
The house price balance slipped to -36% from -34%, the second month in a row it has turned more negative after steadying over the summer. London, East Anglia, the West Midlands and the South East were weaker than the UK as a whole. Prices were still rising firmly in Northern Ireland, with modest growth in Scotland and the North West of England.
Looking a year ahead, the price expectations balance dropped to -17% from zero. RICS said that equates to a fall of around 1%.
Renters
The lettings figures, which RICS collects quarterly, point the other way. Tenant demand returned to growth at +7%, up from -1%, while new landlord instructions stayed weak at -30%.
With fewer homes coming to the rental market and slightly more people looking, the measure of rent expectations for the next three months rose to +41% from +29%. That is the strongest reading since early 2024. Actual rents had been easing on some measures, with the HomeLet Rental Index putting the average UK rent at £1,375 in October.
